This is how bad it could get

If you remember recently we asked "How Bad Can It Get?" and on the whole things were quite positive and up beat. However the comments privately via Stumble Upon and the like were are little more down beat. While the feeling was "if all do not panic it will probably be all right" there were stories of British VCs having the US backer pull out suddenly and reports of well established "mavens" of the making money online world dropping staff and slimming down.

But the IMF is not confident that things are going to look better and others asking the same question as us feel that even the IMF is being overly optimistic: Economic Predictions for 2009 takes a US-centric look at the problems and the what could happen.



Already we are seeig talk of "the great depression" also known as the World Economic Crisis (WEC). The WEC started in America when the unregulated financial industry blew it's own head off with of all places Nazi Germany the first to recover.

Oh yes, we can possibly thank the American Leadership in the 1920s for the rise of one of the most hated Europian leaders of all times. How many people knew that? Did you also know that Japan side stepped the crisis with a large dose of deficit spending?

If this crunch becomes like that of the 1930's what will it be like?

This is the worse possible outcome and it is very bad. I'm not sharing this to scare you but to show what we have faced and could face again unless we get out leaders to start regulating the market that has caused these problems every time.

Imagine a world with so many people out of work and out of homes that social housing can no longer cope.

Imagine a world where every major park in every major city holds a shanty town.

Governments spending more than they gather in taxes in the hope of better time later.

Picture, if you will, a world of work where basic minimum wage and "workers rights" are lost to the truth that there is always someone willing to do twice the work for half the money. Imagine turning up on a building site and offering to do two hours unpaid "training" to each hour of paid time.

Imagine a world where you have to have proof of income, the backing of a home owner and six months rent in advance (and the same as a deposit) in order to rent a place to live. Actually don't imagine this because that is already the case - at least in Thanet, Kent (UK).

What about a world where old buildings have been demolished and yet the new building works have stopped waiting for "better times"? This too is happening.

Think about people in well paid jobs going without food or heating to keep the house they live in. That too is happening.

Imagine "cash" shops springing up where you can flog your electrical equipment (like the TV) for quick cash and then rent it back paying more than it is worth new within a year. These places also exist, more or less.

Imagine a world with a large vagrant population shifting about looking for work. Cross borders and ignoring personal safety in order to work.

Imagine the developing world sending aid workers to us.

Imagine a situation where political hand outs are the only way a party can stay in power. More benefits, more tax breaks, more public debt.

That's how bad it can get. Let's hope that it does not go there this time and that maybe this time we learn to regulate our traders. We could see some or all of that all over again and then again and then again and then our children could see it too. Or we can finally learn our lesson.